We have entered into the second decade of the 21st century, where the world is taking a new turn. The Post-Cold War euphoria with globalisation has now almost faded with a country like the USA under the Presidentship of Mr. Donald Trump is calling for economic protectionism. There is a realisation that globalisation has failed to deliver on its promises, the foremost amongst them was of prosperous and egalitarian world order. Remember, Francis Fukuyama, termed the collapse of the Soviet Union as the end of history. Interestingly, after Mr. Donald Trump won the US Presidential election in 2016 on the agenda of ‘America First’, the neo-liberal magazine The Economist in its editorial said, “history is back with a vengeance”. Mr. Trump is opposed to globalisation, and he started imposing high tariffs on import, thereby, giving an advantage to domestic industries. Mr. Trump is critical of the World Trade Organization (WTO), and the present economic outlook of the USA is not going to change soon.
There has always been an intense debate on globalisation. It was the sole superpower the USA that stood for globalisation, but there is an alteration in its policies. It is one of the reasons why, after the election of Mr. Trump, globalisation comes under significant scrutiny. This trend is likely to continue, and as an alternative, countries may opt for regional economic blocs. The relevance of regionalism is strongly asserted by scholars like Amitav Acharya. While talking of regionalism, there are excellent examples like Europe and Southeast Asia. The Post World War - II reconstruction of Europe is credited to the regional integration. Likewise, Southeast Asia acquired substantial economic power by regionalism.
Contrary to the successful examples of Europe and Southeast Asia, when we discuss regionalism in South Asia, we immediately encounter with tough questions. South Asia is a unique region that is culturally and socially integrated but politically and economically regarded as one of the least integrated regions of the world. Now when we are entering into a new decade of this century, can we be able to change the prospect of regionalism in South Asia? To answer this, we need to understand some of the complex issues in the region. We also need to discuss what are the prospects of regionalism in South Asia.
South Asia is not only a post-colonial but a post-partition region. The partition in South Asia was not a simple event. United India was divided in 1947 after communal riots in which millions were killed, and millions got displaced. It was not just the partition of the country, but the violence that was part of the partition also divided the hearts. The India-Pakistan, despite sharing almost a similar culture, food habits and music, are referred to as enemies in the vocabulary of International Relations. The political class of the two countries rarely make serious attempts to bury the past. There were occasions like the effort of the former Indian Prime Minister Mr. Vajpayee, popularly known as bus diplomacy of 1999, to bring some normalcy in the Indo-Pak ties and to establish peace. Unfortunately, none of it succeeded as per the plans. There were few forward movements but not big enough to change the course of Indo-Pak relations. The hostility between the two has only increased in the recent past with India taking offensive postures in terms of surgical strikes in 2016 and again crossing the border and striking at a terrorist camp in Pakistan after the Pulwama terrorist attack in India in 2019. New Delhi has also revoked article 370 ending the special status of Jammu and Kashmir, and this too has irked Pakistan. The only silver lining is the opening of Kartarpur corridor between India and Pakistan for Sikh pilgrims. However, without improving ties particularly, economic ties, the future of India Pakistan relation will remain bleak, and this will keep affecting the prospect of South Asian regionalism.
India also needs to be more careful in dealing with neighbours. The PM Modi from his first tenure is working on Neighbourhood First policy and taken some appreciating decisions like visiting almost all the South Asian countries and dedicating a SAARC satellite for South Asian countries. The decision to invite all South Asian head of states for his first oath-taking ceremony in 2014 also kindles the hope that things will change soon in the region. To the dismay, not much has improved, and still, pessimism is visible in New Delhi’s South Asia policy. This is one of the reasons why New Delhi recently started emphasizing on sub-regional approaches like BBIN and BIMSTEC. While sub-regionalism is good but, regional integration scholars take sub-regionalism as the one that complements not contradict regionalism. The Indian projection of sub-regionalism is more of a reaction to SAARC and not to complement. India has two significant worries in South Asia. First is undoubtedly Pakistan and its supported terror activities in India, second is the involvement of China in the region. China is an all-weather friend of India’s adversary Pakistan, and China is investing in other South Asian countries including Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Nepal. While India has strong trade relations with China, nevertheless the unsettled border dispute, the memory of the 1962 war, Beijing relations with Islamabad and the perception of strategic competition with China makes India uncomfortable. While India’s apprehension on China is quite discernible, but New Delhi also needs to introspect some of its moves in the past few years. With the coming of China, the political economy of South Asia has changed, and Indian policymakers need to accept this fact. India has to rethink on its role in the region. New Delhi must come out of the big brother syndrome in South Asia and must try to build strong political and economic partnerships with all the South Asian countries.
There are challenges in South Asia, but there are also ample opportunities. This reminds of great development economist of South Asia Mahbub-ul Haq who has said, “South Asia is a region of hope and despair”. The top in the list of hope is the impressive economic growth that the region has exhibited in the last two decades. South Asia is not only one of the fastest-growing regions, but also a relatively young region. As per a report of UNICEF, “almost half of its population of 1.8 billion is below the age of 24. South Asia will have the largest youth labour force in the world until 2040”. So while the economic growth is welcome but much more is required. It is to be noted that South Asian growth is pushed by regional economies getting linked with globalisation, but there is a limit to it.
Further economic growth in the region is possible by regional chains and investment. Regional infrastructure like connectivity is also important. All these projects will push the economic growth as well generate the necessary employment. Similarly, South Asian countries shall collaborate more to provide quality education to the young and in this regional partnership can be a game changer.
The most pressing issue for the whole of South Asia is to provide, quality education to the young, maintain economic growth and to keep generating employment. Here regionalism is the solution. South Asia cannot afford to miss this decade. Integrated South Asia can change the future of South Asians. Let 2020 be the decade of South Asia, and this is only possible by regionalism.
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