India-Pakistan: Can We Move Beyond Kashmir ?

India- Pakistan relations have hardly witnessed a long period of truce and friendship after the partition of 1947. There are layers of complications between the two sides; the most important is Kashmir and terrorism. So much is the pessimism that even established scholars evades prediction on Indo-Pak relations. Nevertheless, there had been attempts to mend this relationship. The Shimla agreement of 1972 and bus diplomacy (1999) of late Indian Prime Minister  Atal Behari Vajpayee could be counted as a few positive ones.  There are remarkable outcomes of both these initiatives in the form of the Samjhuta Express and Sada-e-Sarhad – the train and bus services between the two sides.

Interestingly, there are particular geostrategic contexts of these above mentioned forward movements in the India Pakistan relations. The Shimla agreement was signed after 1971 India-Pakistan war. Likewise, the bus diplomacy was also a way to respond to the international criticism of India’s nuclear test.  On both occasions, it was changed geostrategic scenarios that led to a few positive developments on  India-Pakistan front. Thus, there are lessons that we can draw from the past. 

At present, the Indo-Pak relation is at a new low. The decision of the Indian government to revoke article 370 is vehemently contested by Pakistan. For Pakistan, Jammu & Kashmir is an unresolved issue of partition. Technically, Pakistan has little to resist on the revocation of article 370. Objectively, article 370 was enacted by the Indian Parliament and it has all the rights to revoke it. There are issues related to the manner in which it is revoked, but that is a larger debate, and within India, political parties have raised concerns.  Legally article 370 is an internal issue of India and this is one of the reasons that despite raising it at different international forums, Pakistan failed to generate support. 

Much can be written on Kashmir and article 370, but the pertinent question at the moment is can we move beyond Kashmir. I think we have to look at some turns in the Indo-Pak relations just before the revocation of article 370. To mention a few, starting from the Kartarpur corridor agreement that will allow the visa-free visit of 5000 Indian pilgrims throughout the year, the opening of closed air space by Pakistan, the arrest of Hafiz Saeed and uncontested acceptance of ICJ’s verdict on Kulbhushan Jadav’s case.  Although there are changes - air space is closed again and second consular access to Kulbhusan was denied by Pakistan.  Also, some Pakistani ministers are issuing threats of nuclear confrontations etc., but such show of anger is for the consumption of domestic constituencies. We know what the real meaning of atomic standoff is, it will be a catastrophe for the whole of South Asia. 

Now the hard realities are that India is not going back on article 370, and legally this cannot be questioned at any international forum. Any attempt to flare up conflict in Kashmir by supporting terrorism will prove detrimental for Pakistan, which is under the global terror watchlist of Financial Action Task Force (FATF). Moreover, Pakistan is presently facing an acute economic crisis, in February 2019, its Central Bank was left with $ 8 billion foreign reserves. Islamabad desperately seeks international cooperation for the revival of the economy and recently succeeded in getting  $ 6 billion from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). IMF, with its neo-liberal orientation, put a check on the fiscal deficit of the borrowers, thus restrict Imran Khan from spending on social sectors.  The IMF also wants Pakistan to open up to the regional market.  At this juncture, Pakistan has to use its money judiciously by focusing on the revival of the economy. Stable relations and improved trade ties with India is one of the possible solutions. As per the World Bank report, there is a potential of $37 billion trade between the two sides that is just around $ 2 billion.  In monetary terms, skirmishes have cost, whereas peace with India has benefits.  This proposition of peace needs serious consideration by the Pakistani side. 

For the Indian side, peace with Pakistan is essential for its broader foreign policy objectives. One is undoubtedly the control of terrorism but also for Indian desire to reach energy-rich Central Asia. India’s oil import dependence rose to  83.7 per cent in 2018-19. Likewise, India’s gas demand is expected to rise to 746 mmscmd as per Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board (PNGRB) Vision 2030. Its total supply from all sources is estimated to be 474 mmscmd leaving a gap of 272 mmscmd. India’s growing economy in future will not allow it any leeway in this energy dependence. The best possible case, therefore, is to diversify the import sources, and here comes the relevance of energy-rich Central Asia. India is presently engaged in Turkmenistan -Afghanistan -Pakistan - India (TAPI) gas pipeline project, after completion TAPI will help India to receive 30-40 mmscmd of gas.  Pakistan can be India's gateway to Central Asia. Reaching energy-rich Central Asia via Pakistan is cost-effective. Pakistan as a transit country will be entitled to collect some transit fee and it is a win-win situation for both India and Pakstan.   Also, from the Indian perspective, let us not discount the merit of better trade relations with Pakistan. Likewise, India has global aspiration and the way forward is to play an active role in the region. Due to confrontational relations with Pakistan, India is not paying the required attention to South Asia. While several alternatives are projected like BIMSTEC and Act East,  but politically, socially, culturally, India belongs to South Asia.  Political manoeuvring of New Delhi cannot change this basic fact. India needs to work with all the South Asia countries, shall establish herself as a credible regional power. This is difficult by ignoring Pakistan. We cannot change the neighbours, so the only way is to engage with them. 

To conclude, at present, it is eyeball to eyeball confrontation between India and Pakistan.  From here there are two possible options. The first is to keep the pot boiling and continue with the war of words but how long?  The second is to show some maturity and move beyond Kashmir and discuss peace and trade. In fact, India and Pakistan are standing at a historical juncture and can actually improve their relations forever.