European Parliament Election: Three Issues of Interest

The day when the largest democracy of the world India, will arrive at a judgment on the next government, another unique and important democracy of the world will start voting to elect not national but regional representatives.  The European Parliament (EP) election begins on 23rd May with voting in the United Kingdom (UK) and ends on 26th May 2019.

This time it is a  four-phase election for the European Union (EU) member states, with the majority of Europe voting on 26th May. The EP has 751 representatives, directly elected by the citizens of the EU in every five years. The previous election was in 2014, and a lot has changed in the last five years.  The most unusual event in the history of the EU is the exit of a member state. The UK decided on giving up the membership in 2016 (Brexit), presently is in the process of completing the formalities.  The date of departure of the UK  from the EU is 31st October 2019.  Likewise,  the rise of right-wing populism in Europe has added new complexities for the regional integration process. In the light of these changes, the 2019 EP election has acquired a much greater significance than ever. In this EP election, three issues are to be followed, namely, the politics of far-right, voting pattern in the UK and the controversy over  Russia. 

Given the extraordinary rise of nationalism in Europe, there is a need to contemplate its influence on the EP election. The right-wing populism is on the rise throughout Europe, a few prominent countries with their substantial presence are the UK, Hungary, Germany, Italy, France and the list is growing.  Notably, Brexit was celebrated by the far-right political outfits in different European countries. The far-right always remained critical to the idea of regional integration based on the concept of pooling sovereignty. Far-right parties unapologetically wish to see the decay and ultimate death of the EU.  Following the Brexit, the French nationalist leader Marine Le Pen argued for Frexit; surprisingly, her position has changed.  The Brexit fiasco dented the high spirits of the far-right parties in Europe; it appears that there is a revision in strategy. It is not to push the exit button but to take control of the regional organisation. The far-right parties are now eying on winning maximum seats in the 2019 EP election.  After that, to use the authority of the EP to implement their narrow political agenda. It is to convert the liberal EU to a conservative and a Right regional organisation. For the far-right, the EU must shut its doors for refugees, dilute supranational control by targeting the Eurozone and Schengen region. So there is a shift in the political position of far-right, from exit to entry.  This political turn of the far-right is not surprising and congruent to the changed perception of the EU citizens, who are less likely to support the call of exit but may favour crucial reforms. Some recent surveys indicate backing for the EU membership to unprecedented levels. Similarly, 2018  Eurobarometer (a measure of people’s viewpoint on the EU) results illustrate that economic welfare and security within the EU  are the top two concerns of the people. The far-right parties have used both these issues to consolidated their bases in national politics and banking on the same to gain a foothold in the region. This EP election result will reveal how long the far-right parties have travelled, a favourable verdict for them will have broader consequences.

Second in the list of interest for the coming EP election is voting in the UK.  Regarding the UK and EP election, people in and outside of Europe will be keen on knowing the scorecard of different political parties.  The 2016 referendum to exit the EU is yet to be implemented due to lack of national consensus. In the last six months, it is all about mudslinging, confusion, and failure of the government to get a pre-exit deal with the EU.  Since the UK is still a member of the EU, it is participating in the EP election. There are two pertinent issues in this EP election for the UK.  The first is related to the power of the EP.  The EP has a right to vote on the deal that the UK will conclusively have with the European Commission (EC), and the presence of the UK representatives in the Parliament makes a difference.  It will matter as who all are representing the UK in the EP parliament.  Going by the surveys, most likely, the far-right Nigel Farage and his new Brexit party may perform well.  Nigel Farage, in 2014 EP elections secured a good number of seats for his ex-party UKIP and is expected to repeat the performance for his new Brexit party. A strong presence of Brexit Party and other far-right parties in the EP will make things further complicated for the British PM Theresa May. Mark the point that she is struggling in the post-Brexit political turmoil.   The second is that favourable voting for Brexit party will be a warning bell for both Conservative and Labour in the UK. 

The third important issue on the watch list is the controversy around Russia. After the 2016 US Presidential election, there has been a furore over Moscow’s interference. This controversy is still fresh, and different European countries also alleged Russia of similar interventions. One of the Russian banks had given loan to the French far-right Marine Le Pen in the run-up to 2017 Presidential election. Also, the email leak of Immanuel Macron, just a couple of days before the voting in 2017 French Presidential election, was blamed on Russia. The complaint is that Russia is hand in glove with the far-right politicians in the western democracies to create a rift in the society. The 2019 EP election is critical and many believe it will determine the future course of European integration. The overwhelming majority of far-right political parties in the EP will be enough to obstruct the political and economic reforms, essential to overcome the crisis faced by the EU. Considering the recent sourness in the EU-Russia relations over several matters, but primarily on Ukraine, left little trust between the two. There are already reports appearing in the European media about fake news, and dubious social media accounts that are spreading misinformation and rumours favourable to the far-right. A section of western political analysts blames most of these on Russia. The EU despite its technological superiority is finding it difficult to counter the fake news because of the internal diversity, numerous languages and different domestic legal procedures. In brief, the controversy related to Russia is liable to aggravate during and after the 2019 EP election.

The EU in these last few years has shown utmost resolve to fight back and EP 2019 election in that context is a vital political exercise.  The EU's organisational structure is complicated and leaves fewer spaces for people to express their opinion directly, except for the  EP. Therefore, the EP election result will tell us about the future path of the EU.